Why 100% Renewable Power Is Much less Real looking Than a Unicorn

Visitor “you’ll’t get there from right here” by means of David Middleton

16 Sep 2019 | 14:45 GMT
How Reasonably priced Should Power Garage Be for Utilities to Transfer to 100 % Renewables?
MIT researchers record the power garage applied sciences that would allow a 100 p.c renewable grid

Via Prachi Patel

[…]

Electrical energy and warmth manufacturing are the biggest resources of greenhouse gasoline emissions on the earth. Carbon-free electrical energy will probably be important for maintaining the common world temperature upward thrust to inside the United International locations’ goal of 1.five levels Celsius and steer clear of the worst results of local weather trade. As international leaders meet on the United International locations Local weather Motion Summit subsequent week, boosting renewable power and effort garage will probably be main priorities.

Wind and photo voltaic skeptics are fast to show that such methods are pricey and will’t stay the lighting fixtures on 24/7. The primary argument is wilting as renewables develop into cost-competitive with fossil fuels. The second additionally boils down to price: that of power garage, which will probably be crucial for sending massive quantities of renewable power to the grid when wanted.
“Low cost garage is the important thing to enabling renewable electrical energy to compete with fossil gas generated electrical energy on a price foundation,” says But-Ming Chiang, a fabrics science and engineering professor at MIT.

However precisely how low? Chiang, professor of power research Jessika Trancik, and others have made up our minds that power garage must charge kind of US $20 in step with kilowatt-hour (kWh) for the grid to be 100 p.c powered by means of a wind-solar combine. Their research is revealed in Joule.

That’s an intimidating stretch for lithium-ion batteries, which dipped to $175/kWh in 2018. 

[…]

Power garage must charge $10 to $20/kWh for a wind-solar combine with garage to be aggressive with a nuclear energy plant offering baseload electrical energy. And competing with a herbal gasoline peaker plant will require power garage prices to fall to $five/kWh.

However the ones figures are just for eventualities by which photo voltaic and wind meet energy call for 100 p.c of the time. If different resources meet call for simply five p.c of the time, garage may paintings at a ticket of $150/kWh. Which applied sciences may hit that focus on?

[…]

Editor’s word: This tale is revealed in cooperation with greater than 250 media organizations and impartial newshounds that experience centered their protection on local weather trade forward of the UN Local weather Motion Summit. IEEE Spectrum’s participation within the Masking Local weather Now partnership builds on our previous reporting about this world factor.
This put up was once up to date on 16 September 2019. 

IEEE Spectrum

The paper, revealed in Joule, was once mentioned on this August eight WUWT put up. This newsletter supplies slightly extra element. To ensure that wind & photo voltaic to in truth be aggressive, power garage prices must drop to:

• $10-20/kWh to be aggressive with nuclear energy for baseload.
• $five/kWh to be aggressive with herbal gasoline peaker energy vegetation.

Nuclear energy and herbal gasoline peakers (CT) are the 2 costliest dispatchable electrical energy technology resources, after than coal with CCS.

If power garage prices must fall to $five/kWh for wind & photo voltaic to be aggressive with herbal gasoline peaker energy vegetation ($77.70-89.30/MWh) and $10-20/kWh to be aggressive with nuclear energy ($77.50/MWh) baseload, how low would it not need to get to be aggressive with herbal gasoline blended cycle ($41.20-46.30/MWh) baseload?

The thing then bizarrely notes…

If different resources meet call for simply five p.c of the time, garage may paintings at a ticket of $150/kWh.

At first, you’ll’t run baseload energy vegetation five% of the time. Secondly, the $20/kWh handiest applies to “resource-abundant places similar to Texas and Arizona” and, since there is not any such factor as a nuclear powered peaker, the $150/kWh charge goal is much more likely to be completed via freezing in the dead of night…

We estimate that power garage capability prices underneath a kind of $20/kWh goal would permit a wind-solar combine to supply cost-competitive baseload electrical energy in resource-abundant places similar to Texas and Arizona. Enjoyable reliability constraints by means of bearing in mind a couple of p.c of downtime hours raises garage charge goals significantly, however will require supplemental applied sciences. 

Science Direct

Since unicorn schist is not going to look at the power scene any time quickly and maximum power customers favor not to freeze in the dead of night, it must come as little wonder that in line with america EIA’s Annual Power Outlook, in 2050 we’ll be getting 48% of 31% of our electrical energy from photo voltaic PV. For the math-impaired, that’s 15%… Whilst, we’ll be nonetheless getting 17% of our electrical energy from coal-fired energy vegetation.

After all, electrical energy technology is just one a part of the power puzzle. Number one power comprises transportation, electrical energy technology, commercial, industrial and home intake.

The fairway curve is “different renewables,” essentially wind (each onshore and offshore) and photo voltaic, the grey curve is “coal,” the blue curve is “herbal gasoline.” Notice that during 2050, “different renewables” may have slightly overtaken “coal,” whilst “petroleum and different liquids” and “herbal gasoline” will each and every be Three-Four occasions the Quad Btu as “different renewables.”

Are EIA projections all the time proper? No. They’re “projections”. EIA completely neglected the Shale Revolution. If frac’ing was once a unicorn, then photo voltaic/wind plus garage may in truth compete with herbal gasoline… as a result of that might imply that unicorns in truth existed.

Reference

Ziegler, Micah, Joshua Mueller, Gonçalo Pereira, Juhyun Tune, Marco Ferrara, But-Ming Chiang & Jessika Trancik. (2019). “Garage Necessities and Prices of Shaping Renewable Power Towards Grid Decarbonization”. Joule. 10.1016/j.joule.2019.06.012.