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Reposted from Dr. Susan Crockford’s Polar Undergo Science
Posted on July eight, 2020 |
This up to date weblog submit of mine from remaining year is as pertinent now because it used to be then: it’s a fully-referenced rebuttal to the deceptive ‘information’ so regularly offered this time of 12 months to fortify the perception that polar bears are being harmed because of loss of summer time sea ice. Polar Bears Global advanced ‘Arctic Sea Ice Day’ (15 July) to advertise their skewed interpretation of polar undergo science on the peak of the Arctic soften season. This 12 months I’ve upload a ‘Polar Bears and the Arctic Meals Chain‘ graphic, which readers are unfastened to obtain and percentage. For additional data, see “The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Took place“.
Summer season sea ice loss is in the end ramping up: first 12 months is disappearing, because it has achieved yearly since ice got here to the Arctic thousands and thousands of years in the past. However essential misconceptions, fallacies, and disinformation abound referring to Arctic sea ice and polar undergo survival. Forward of Arctic Sea Ice Day (15 July), listed here are 10 fallacies that lecturers and fogeys particularly want to learn about.
As at all times, please touch me if you want to inspect any of the references incorporated on this submit. Those references are what make my efforts other from the activist group Polar Bears Global. PBI nearly by no means supply references inside the content material it supplies, together with subject matter it items as ‘instructional’. Hyperlinks to earlier posts of mine that offer expanded explanations, pictures, and further references also are equipped.
Sea ice background: extent over the past 12 months
Summer season sea ice minimal 2019 (from NSIDC):
Wintry weather sea ice most 2020:
Sea ice at 7 July 2019: early summer time extent
Even though 2019 had the second lowest extent for the month of June since 1979, through the top of June 2020 (as used to be additionally the case in 2019), there used to be nonetheless ice adjoining to all main polar undergo denning spaces around the Arctic (see chart under).
In lots of areas – together with Western Hudson Bay, Wrangel Island, and Franz Josef Land – pregnant women that can give start on land in December come ashore in summer time and keep till their new child cubs are sufficiently old to go back with them to the ice the next spring. See Andersen et al. 2012; Ferguson et al. 2000; Garner et al. 1994; Jonkel et al. 1978; Harington 1968; Kochnev 2018; Kolenosky and Prevett 1983; Larsen 1985; Olson et al. 2017; Richardson et al. 2005; Stirling and Andriashek 1992.
Ten fallacies and disinformation about sea ice
1. ‘Sea ice is to the Arctic as soil is to a wooded area‘. False: this all-or-nothing analogy is a specious comparability. In reality, Arctic sea ice is sort of a giant wetland pond that dries up a little each summer time, the place the volume of habitat to be had to maintain aquatic vegetation, amphibians and bugs is lowered however does no longer disappear totally. Wetland species are tailored to this habitat: they can continue to exist the lowered water availability within the dry season as it occurs yearly. In a similar fashion, sea ice will at all times reform within the iciness and keep till spring. All over the 2 million or so years that ice has shaped within the Arctic, there has at all times been ice within the iciness and spring (even in hotter Interglacials than this one). Additionally, I’m really not conscious about a unmarried fashionable local weather style that predicts iciness ice will fail to broaden over the following 80 years or so. See Amstrup et al. 2007; Durner et al. 2009; Gibbard et al. 2007; Polak et al. 2010; Stroeve et al. 2007.
2. Polar bears want summer time sea ice to continue to exist. False: polar bears that experience fed adequately on younger seals within the early spring can are living off their fats for 5 months or extra till the autumn, whether or not they spend the summer time on land or the Arctic pack ice. Polar bears seldom catch seals in the summertime as a result of best predator-savvy grownup seals are to be had and holes within the pack ice permit the seals many alternatives to flee (see the BBC video under). Polar bears and Arctic seals in reality require sea ice from overdue fall thru early spring best. See Crockford 2017, 2019; Hammill and Smith 1991:132; Obbard et al. 2016; Pilfold et al. 2016; Stirling 1974; Stirling and Øritsland 1995; Whiteman et al. 2015.
Three. Ice algae is the root for all Arctic lifestyles. Most effective in part true as a result of plankton additionally prospers in open water all the way through the Arctic summer time, which in the long run supplies meals for the fish species that ringed and bearded seals consume all the way through the summer time, which fattens the seals up prior to the lengthy Arctic iciness (because the graphic under displays).
Contemporary analysis has proven that much less ice in summer time has stepped forward ringed and bearded seal well being and survival over prerequisites that existed within the 1980s (when there used to be a shorter ice-free season and less fish to consume): as a end result, ample seal populations had been a boon for the polar bears that rely on them for meals in early spring. As an example, in spite of dwelling with essentially the most profound decline of summer time sea ice within the Arctic polar bears within the Barents Sea round Svalbard are thriving, as are Chukchi Sea polar bears – each opposite to predictions made in 2007 that led to polar bears being declared ‘threatened’ with extinction underneath the Endangered Species Act. See Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017; Amstrup et al. 2007; Arrigo and van Dijken 2015; Crawford and Quakenbush 2013; Crawford et al. 2015; Crockford 2017, 2019; Frey et al. 2018; Kovacs et al. 2016; Lippold et al. 2019; Lowry 2016; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode and Regehr 2010; Rode et al. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018.
four. Open water in early spring in addition to summer time ice soften since 1979 are unnatural and unfavorable to polar undergo survival. False: melting ice is a standard a part of the seasonal adjustments within the Arctic. Within the iciness and spring, a variety of spaces of open water seem as a result of wind and currents rearrange the pack ice – this isn’t soften, however somewhat customary polynya formation and enlargement. Polynyas and widening shore leads supply a really useful mixture of ice resting platform and nutrient-laden open water that pulls Arctic seals and gives superb looking alternatives for polar bears. The map under displays Canadian polynyas and shore leads recognized within the 1970s: equivalent patches of open water robotically broaden in spring off jap Greenland and alongside the Russian coast of the Arctic Ocean. See Dunbar 1981; Grenfell and Maykut 1977; Hare and Sir Bernard Law 1949; Smith and Rigby 1981; Stirling and Cleator 1981; Stirling et al. 1981, 1993.
Ordinary polynyas and shore leads in Canada recognized within the 1970s. From Smith and Rigby 1981
Five. Local weather fashions do a just right process of predicting long term polar undergo habitat. False: My contemporary e book, The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Took place, explains that the virtually 50% decline in summer time sea ice that used to be no longer anticipated till 2050 in reality arrived in 2007, the place it’s been ever since (but polar bears are thriving). This is a very unhealthy monitor report of sea ice prediction. Additionally, opposite to predictions made through local weather modelers, first 12 months ice has already changed a lot of the multi-year ice within the southern and jap portion of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, to the advantage of polar bears. See additionally ACIA 2005; Crockford 2017, 2019; Durner et al. 2009; Hamilton et al. 2014; Heide-Jorgensen et al. 2012; Perovich et al. 2018; Stern and Laidre 2016; Stroeve et al. 2007; SWG 2016; Wang and Overland 2012.
Simplified predictions vs. observations as much as 2007 equipped through Stroeve et al. 2007 (courtesy Wikimedia). Sea ice hit a good decrease extent in 2012 and all years since then had been under predicted ranges.
6. Sea ice is getting thinner and that’s an issue for polar bears. False: First 12 months ice (lower than about 2 metres thick) is the most efficient dependancy for polar bears as a result of additionally it is the most efficient habitat for Arctic seals. Very thick multi-year ice that has been changed through first 12 months ice that melts totally each summer time creates extra just right habitat for seals and bears within the spring, when they want it essentially the most. This has took place particularly within the southern and jap parts of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (see ice chart under from Sept 2016). On account of such adjustments in ice thickness, the inhabitants of polar bears in Kane Basin (off NW Greenland) has greater than doubled for the reason that overdue 1990s and numbers of bears in M’Clintock Channel (within the SE Archipelago) have reportedly additionally higher. See Atwood et al. 2016; Durner et al. 2009; Lang et al. 2017; Stirling et al. 1993; SWG 2016.
7. Polar bears in Western and Southern Hudson Bay are maximum prone to extinction because of world warming. False: Ice decline in Hudson Bay has been a number of the lowest around the Arctic. Sea ice decline in Hudson Bay (see graphs under) has been lower than someday according to 12 months since 1979 in comparison to greater than four days according to 12 months within the Barents Sea. Hudson Bay ice decline additionally uniquely took place as a unexpected step-change in 1998: there has no longer been a sluggish and secure decline. Since 1998, the ice-free season in Western Hudson Bay has been about Three weeks longer general than it used to be within the 1980s however has no longer transform any more over the past 22 years in spite of declines in general Arctic sea ice extent or higher carbon dioxide emissions. Ice protection over Hudson Bay on the finish of June in 2020 used to be as top as remaining 12 months, offering just right sea ice prerequisites for WH and SH polar bears for the remaining 5 years at least. See Castro de l. a. Guardia et al. 2017; Regehr et al. 2016.
Lack of summer time sea ice according to 12 months, 1979-2014. From Regehr et al. 2016.
eight. Breakup of sea ice in Western Hudson Bay now happens 3 weeks previous than it did within the 1980s. False: Breakup now happens about 2 weeks previous in summer time than it did within the 1980s. The whole period of the ice-free season is now about Three weeks longer (with a lot of year-to-year variation). WH polar bears tagged remaining 12 months have been nonetheless at the ice on the finish of June 2020. See Castro de l. a. Guardia et al. 2017; Cherry et al. 2013; Lunn et al. 2016; and video under, appearing the primary undergo noticed off the ice at Cape Churchill, Western Hudson Bay, on Five July 2019 – fats and wholesome after consuming smartly all the way through the spring:
nine. Wintry weather sea ice has been declining since 1979, striking polar undergo survival in danger. Most effective in part true: whilst sea ice in iciness (i.e. March) has been declining steadily since 1979 (see graph under from NOAA), there’s no proof to signify this has negatively impacted polar undergo well being or survival, because the decline has been relatively minimum. The ocean ice chart firstly of this submit displays that during 2020 there used to be a variety of ice final in March to satisfy the wishes of polar bears and their number one prey (ringed and bearded seals), in spite of 2019 being the 11th lowest since 1979 (and the absolute best since 2013).
10. Mavens say that with 19 other polar undergo subpopulations around the Arctic, there are “19 sea ice eventualities enjoying out“ (see additionally right here), implying that is what they predicted all alongside. False: With a view to are expecting the longer term survival of polar bears, biologists at the USA Geological Survey in 2007 grouped polar undergo subpopulations with equivalent sea ice varieties (which they known as ‘polar undergo ecoregions,’ see map under). Their predictions of polar undergo survival have been in keeping with assumptions of ways the ice in those 4 sea ice areas would replace through the years (with spaces in inexperienced and pink being in a similar way extraordinarily susceptible to results of local weather replace). Alternatively, it seems that there’s a lot more variation inside of and between areas than they anticipated and extra variations in responses to summer time sea ice loss than predicted: opposite to predictions, the Barents Sea has had a some distance larger decline in summer time ice extent than another area, and each Western and Southern Hudson Bay have had fairly little (see #7). See Amstrup et al. 2007; Atwood et al. 2016; Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020; Durner et al. 2009; Lippold et al. 2019; Regehr et al. 2016. My newest e book, The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Took place, explains why this prediction in keeping with sea ice ecoregions failed so miserably.
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