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Why are polar bears going extinct? (Spoiler: They’re no longer)

Reposted from Dr. Susan Crockford’s Polar Endure Science

Posted on February 24, 2020 |

Google says many of us ask this query so here’s the right kind solution: polar bears aren’t going extinct. If in case you have been advised that, you will have misunderstood or were misinformed. Polar bears are well-distributed throughout their to be had habitat and inhabitants numbers are top (formally 22,000-31,000 at 2015 however most likely nearer to 26,000-58,000 at 2018): those are options of a wholesome, thriving species. ‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’ accommodates a false premise – there’s no wish to ask ‘why’ when the ‘polar bears [are] going extinct’ phase isn’t true.1

mother-with-cubs-russia_shutterstock_71694292_web-size-e1582489285608

It is true that during 2007, it used to be predicted that polar undergo numbers would plummet when summer time sea ice declined to 42% of 1979 ranges for eight out of 10 years (expected to happen by means of 2050) and extinct or just about so by means of 2100 (Amstrup et al. 2007). Alternatively, summer time sea ice has been at ‘mid-century-like’ ranges since 2007 (with 12 months to 12 months variation, see NOAA ice chart under) but polar undergo numbers have larger since 2005. The predicted crisis didn’t happen however many of us nonetheless consider it did since the media and a few researchers nonetheless give that impact.

Sea ice extent_2012_Sept low_reduced by more than 50pc_NASA Ice Imagery

The prediction of approaching extinction of the polar undergo used to be an utter failure, as I’ve proven in this clinical paper (Crockford 2017) and my most up-to-date e-book, The Polar Endure Disaster That By no means Took place.

Read about the proof and you’re going to see that says of polar bears going extinct are merely no longer true. Thus far, the reaction of polar bears to contemporary ice loss suggests that they’re going to proceed to thrive with even much less summer time ice than there was in recent times so long as ice in iciness (December-March) and spring (April-June) stays rather considerable, as has been the case thus far. The newest knowledge to be had is summarized within the upcoming State of the Polar Endure Document 2019, to be launched 27 February 2020 however see additionally the 2018 document (Crockford 2019b).

The graph under used to be built by means of NASA sea ice skilled Walt Meier and revealed by means of the USA Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Heart in early October 2019. It presentations obviously that summer time sea ice (measured as the common for September) has no longer declined additional since 2007 however has had a flat development.

Sea ice extent 2019 Sept average NSIDC_graph extent and trend showing stall

The graph under is from my e-book and presentations the expansion of worldwide polar undergo numbers for the reason that 1960s. The overall estimate 26,000-58,000 or 39,000 reasonable) is my believable and scientifically defensible ‘perfect wager’ in response to extrapolation of new survey effects, summarized right here and defined intimately in my e-book.

Population size estimate graph my estimate

https://youtu.be/z6bcCTFnGZ0
Footnote

Considered one of Google’s best ‘recommendation’ after I seek for the time period ‘polar undergo’ is a listing of questions that individuals supposedly ask essentially the most (‘Other people additionally ask’), together with ‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’

The ‘solution’ equipped isn’t a real solution however a observation from WWF, an multi-national group financially invested in selling the concept that polar bears are struggling because of declining sea ice: it’s paid Google promoting supposed to seem like solutions and info:

‘As a result of ongoing and possible lack of their sea ice habitat on account of local weather exchange, polar bears have been indexed as a threatened species in the USA beneath the Endangered Species Act in Might 2008. The survival and the security of the polar undergo habitat are pressing problems for WWF.’

Observe the observation misleadingly says ‘sea ice’ when it actually method ‘summer time sea ice’ – the predictions of possible polar undergo inhabitants decline have been primarily based solely on summer time ice (Amstrup et al. 2007; Crockford 2017, 2019).

As I stated above, ‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’ accommodates a false premise – there’s no wish to ask ‘why’, when the ‘polar bears [are] going extinct’ phase isn’t true. This put up is for the individuals who seek the web considering that polar bears actually are going extinct.

Every other query Google provides is: ‘What number of polar bears are left?’ Solution [my bold]:

‘If truth be told, the Global Large Fund for Nature (or WWF) estimates that there are best 22,000 to 31,000 polar bears left on the planet. Jan 25, 2019’

Simplest? This international estimate, equipped by means of the IUCN Pink Listing (no longer the WWF) method there are virtually thrice extra polar bears than the 10,000 or so there have been in 1960 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). However the Pink Listing determine contains out-of-date estimates and low-balled guesses for lots of the 19 subpopulations and my e-book (Crockford 2019) explains why this 2015 estimate sanctioned by means of the IUCN used to be virtually indubitably too low.

References

Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide standing of polar bears at decided on occasions within the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf right here

Crockford, S.J. 2017. Trying out the speculation that regimen sea ice protection of Three-Five mkm2 leads to a better than 30% decline in inhabitants measurement of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open get admission to. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/

Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Endure Disaster That By no means Took place. International Warming Coverage Basis, London. To be had in paperback and book codecs.

Crockford, S.J. 2019b. State of the Polar Endure Document 2018. International Warming Coverage Basis Document 32, London. pdf right here.

Regehr, E.V., Laidre, Ok.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation standing of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) on the subject of projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content material/12/12/20160556

Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, Ok., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., et al. 2015. Ursus maritimus. The IUCN Pink Listing of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. To be had from http://www.iucnredlist.org/main points/22823/zero [accessed Nov. 28, 2015]. See the complement for inhabitants figures right here.

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