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Reposted from Polar Endure Science
Posted on January 12, 2020 |
This aerial shot of six fats polar bears lolling round on a sand seashore at the coast of the Southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska, was once taken by way of NOAA workers in July 2019. It exemplifies the truth that bears on this subpopulation are lately considerable and wholesome, negating the advice that numbers have persevered to drop since 2006 as a result of bears are ravenous.
The above image of polar undergo well being isn’t an exception however the rule for all 31 bears recorded onshore final July, because the footage underneath from different places testify. Those that would blame this abundance of bears on loss of sea ice in 2019 must word that ice retreated as early and as widely in 2017 but handiest three bears had been noticed onshore. Result of a up to date (2017-2018) inhabitants survey, that have now not but been made public, will in fact now not replicate prerequisites noticed in 2019.
Alaska’s polar undergo vary: Southern Beaufort Sea (which results at Barrow) to the Canadian border, overlaps with bears from the Chukchi Sea within the west, appearing location of Prudhoe Bay. From Cronin et al. 2006.
In keeping with an respectable NOAA weblog document by way of Vicki Beaver, unbiased aerial marine mammal observer to NOAA’s ASAMM workforce [my bold] – see pdf right here:
“July 2019 tallied extra polar undergo sightings than any earlier July since ASAMM Beaufort Sea summer season surveys started again in 2012. Up to now, seven bears was once ASAMM’s document for essentially the most bears noticed in July on sea ice or land or in open water, for the western Beaufort and jap Chukchi seas mixed.
This July we had 38 polar bears! Thirty. 8.
Whilst it should look like a just right factor to look such a lot of bears, we can not suppose that larger sightings equals an expanding inhabitants. In truth, it can be rather the opposite.
Traditionally, polar bears within the Beaufort Sea spent their complete yr on sea ice, excluding for women that spent iciness in dens at the coastal simple. Not too long ago, increasingly polar bears are coming ashore within the western Beaufort Sea and they’re arriving previous, leaving later, and staying for longer classes general.
From 2012 to 2018 all the way through the month of July, ASAMM recorded handiest 3 polar bears on shore. The ones 3 bears had been noticed in 2017, a yr when sea ice retreated previous within the season than maximum different years. In July 2019, 31 of the 38 bears recorded had been noticed on shore.
This is going on on account of sea ice decline. Arctic sea ice in 2019 tied with 2007 and 2016 for the second one lowest sea ice extent since fashionable recordkeeping started within the past due 1970s. A marked decline in sea ice protection and an larger duration of ice absence within the southern Beaufort Sea in September has been documented over the past 15 years.”
Smartly, sure – she would say that seeing extra bears doesn’t imply there are extra bears: that’s the respectable line to provide an explanation for any and all will increase in fresh onshore sightings or issues of bears (although within the 1980s, seeing extra bears did imply extra bears).
Via her personal admission, 2017 had an early retreat of sea ice within the Southern Beaufort, but handiest 3 bears had been noticed onshore all the way through the July portion of the summer season survey, so she explains away this contradiction by way of speaking about developments. On the other hand, bringing up 30 yr developments in sea ice decline to provide an explanation for occasions one particular time is a PR stunt: it’s some way of spinning knowledge to fit the narrative however scientifically, it makes completely no sense.
A have a look at the ice document for the ones two years (2017 and 2019) displays little or no distinction within the Southern Beaufort: there was once some ice last within the western portion each years by way of the start of July however the remaining was once nearly ice-free.
Via mid-July, there was once in truth extra ice off the Alaska coast in 2019 than there was once in 2017 (each pictures underneath) and but there have been handiest 3 bears noticed onshore all the way through July in 2017 however 31 in 2019:
There’s going to must be a greater tale than ‘now not sufficient ice’ to provide an explanation for the abundance of fats, wholesome polar bears noticed in July 2019 at the Beaufort coast. I will be able to additionally indicate that since those bears had been proper off the ice in July, they didn’t get fats from feeding on final yr’s whale carcasses, as proven underneath: they were given fats from their spring feeding.
9 fats bears, together with moms with cubs, had been discovered interested in 2018’s picked-over whale carcasses close to Prudhoe Bay at Go Island in past due July 2019 (underneath): the primary bowhead of the season in 2019 was once now not taken till 29 August.
Additionally from the document, relating to bears at whale carcasses [my bold]:
“Previous to 2019, the earliest ASAMM has recorded massive aggregations of polar bears was once August 15, in 2016 (13 bears). In 2019, ASAMM documented 20 polar bears on Go Island by way of past due July.
Right through the rest of the 2019 box season, ASAMM persevered to look top numbers of polar bears alongside the western Beaufort Beach on a number of events. On October 23, ASAMM documented 32 polar bears – most commonly moms with cubs – on Go Island.“
Those bears had been fats sufficient in July to simply continue to exist a Four-Five month rapid just like the bears do in Western Hudson Bay, who usually rapid from early July to November. Ice had returned to the jap portion of the Southern Beaufort by way of past due October (underneath) and had prolonged east and west by way of the 14th of November:
Listed below are extra photos from the document, all appearing fats, wholesome bears.
A fats mom with two-year outdated cubs leisure on a seashore:
A number of fats bears, together with a mom and cub, leisure on a seashore:
In western Alaska, 4 fats bears feed on a bowhead whale carcass that doesn’t seem to be the stays of subsistence searching (i.e. a herbal demise):
And finally, listed here are two circle of relatives teams known by way of the observers: a mom with 3 cubs (a triplet muddle hardly ever noticed outdoor Western Hudson Bay) and every other with two cubs, that glance simply as fats and wholesome because the others:
From the 2018 survey, is an especially fats undergo in August enjoyable close to Barrow (now Utqiagvik) after feeding on a walrus carcass close by (therefore the bloody face):
